Via Watts Up With That:
Claim: Disease-transmission model forecasts election outcomes
new election forecasting approach uses mathematical modeling to describe how voters in different states may influence each other during an election year.To simulate how interactions between voters may play a role in the upcoming presidential, gubernatorial and senatorial elections, a Northwestern University research team is adapting a model that is commonly used to study infectious diseases.
The model treats decided voters as “infected” and undecided voters as “susceptible” to infection. Two “diseases” (namely, Democratic and Republican voting inclinations) propagate through a population, “infecting” (or influencing) undecided individuals.
OK, I think I already see some problems with this approach.
To generate each of their 2020 forecasts, the researchers use polling data from FiveThirtyEight to simulate 10,000 potential election outcomes. At the time of this article, the model forecasts a victory for Biden 89.03% of the time, and a victory for President Donald Trump 10.78% of the time.
So.
They’ve plugged Dem-skewed data (seriously) into a model that assumes undecided voters are unthinking, easily swayed (so why are they still undecided?) zombies who can be persuaded to vote for a given candidate by contact, not by rational analysis of policy. And amazingly, the model almost always says the Dem will win. Surprise, surprise.
Frankly, their mindless voter concept is more applicable to hardcore party line voters, not folks undecided be cause they’re still thinking about. This model certainly doesn’t take me into account.
On the other hand, it may be an excellent model of fraudulent voting, in the ballots dont’t represent thinking beings, but are zombies generated by parties. And while both of the Big @ do it, the Dems definitely go heavier than the Reps.
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