The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival, by Sir John Glubb, was published in 1976. Some might call it prescient.
Glubb was among many other things, a historian. He saw that pretty much every empire though history went through the same phases from founding to collapse.
- Pioneers
- Conquests
- Commerce
- Affluence
- Intellect
- Decadence
I’m just enough of a student of history that I was inclined to agree with his thesis. But reading that article was still a shocker. He’s right, and he supports the idea with some very telling a specific examples throughout history.
You should read this. It’s 26 pages, but it is not densely written just for uppity intellectuals. He clearly wanted this concept to be accessible to everyone. It is not a tough read.
I particularly want you to read the section on the Age of Decadence, the period that leads to collapse. Here’s one brief part.
As long as it retains its status of leadership,
the imperial people are glad to be generous,
even if slightly condescending. The rights of
citizenship are generously bestowed on every
race, even those formerly subject, and the
equality of mankind is proclaimed. The
Roman Empire passed through this phase,
when equal citizenship was thrown open to
all peoples, such provincials even becoming
senators and emperors.
The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally,
perhaps even more, generous. During the
Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had
constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth
century the empire was completely
cosmopolitan.
State assistance to the young and the poor
was equally generous. University students
received government grants to cover their
expenses while they were receiving higher
education. The State likewise offered free
medical treatment to the poor. The first free
public hospital was opened in Baghdad in
the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and
under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals
sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain
to what is now Pakistan.
The impression that it will always be
automatically rich causes the declining
empire to spend lavishly on its own
benevolence, until such time as the economy
collapses, the universities are closed and the
hospitals fall into ruin.
Then read some news headlines.
Hat tip to Peter Grant.
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